A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
